We admit a sample of brand-new Solana launches the moment they appear and examine each one at 15 minutes, 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours. A coin counts as alive while it trades above its launch value. The curve is the share still alive.
Opening the chart…
Split the cohort by launchpad or by the UTC hour of launch. The dashed line is the whole cohort, weighted.
Horizontal axis steps once per check-up (not to scale). The line drops at each check-up where sampled coins were found dead and ends where no coins remain under observation.
The newest coins in the sample. Each is re-examined on schedule; the status shows its latest check-up.
| Coin | Launchpad | Admitted | Launch value | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||
Kaplan–Meier copes with coins we haven't finished observing, so a young sample can't fake a happy outcome.
Every 20 seconds we read Jupiter's feed of the newest launches across launchpads (pump.fun, Meteora DBC pads, LaunchLab and more). Every launch is counted. A fixed hash-based sample is followed: 1 in 40 pump.fun coins and 1 in 5 from the other launchpads.
The first market cap Jupiter reports for the coin, normally inside its first minute.
At a check-up the market cap is above the launch value and the coin traded at least once in the previous hour (Jupiter token data). Death is logged at the first failed check-up, and recoveries afterwards are not counted.
S(t) = Π (1 − dᵢ / nᵢ) across check-ups, where nᵢ is coins still under observation and dᵢ coins found dead there. Coins alive at their latest check are censored rather than assumed to live forever. The whole-cohort curve weights each coin by the inverse of its sampling rate so pump.fun isn't under-represented.
The first check-up where S(t) falls to 50% or lower. "≤15m" means more than half were already gone at the first check.
This is a sample, not a full census. A check-up missed by more than an hour (a restart, say) is skipped rather than estimated.
A description of how past launches fared. It isn't a prognosis for any single coin and isn't a reason to buy or sell one. No sign-in, no wallet, nothing to approve.